Premature flight to risk - MarketWatch

"It's the flight from risk again," said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst with Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky. "People are piling on Treasurys and out of anything that hints of risk." (risk assets ended higher, except oil)

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/crude-drops-below-70bbl-extending-losses-2010-05-21

Crude selloff continues - MarketWatch

Crude oil for June delivery, the most active contract, lost 72 cents, or 0.6%, to $76.62 a barrel on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's its lowest price since mid-February, when prices dropped to a little above $74 a barrel.

"Everything is still very much in a fragile state. Who wants to jump in just yet?" said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Ky. Investors pondered whether it would be wiser just to let "the uncertainly shake itself off," he said.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-rebound-after-steep-selloff-2010-05-07-73800

Assessing the Deepwater Horizon backlash - Reuters

Are costs going to rise? Absolutely. Will it hurt oil producers? No, because they are going to pass the costs on to consumers," said Brad Samples of Summit Energy in Louisville, Kentucky...

...But the futures curve for oil prices indicates that some traders may already be factoring in new costs that could make crude more costly down the line.

"Longer-dated oil prices should rise because of this event (spill), since they would reflect the higher cost of getting those barrels out of the ground," Samples said...

..."To the extent that marginal costs rise here, you'll get higher production costs everywhere, in Brazil and Angola and wherever the deepwater play is happening," Samples said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6456HF20100506

More on TBTF countries - CNN Money

What analysts are saying: "Today, it's pretty much a classic risk trade," said Brad Samples, a commodities analyst for Summit Energy. "Risk appetite is rising and people are returning to the market."

For weeks, crude prices have struggled to find a definitive direction as traders balanced optimistic economic and earnings news with developments in Europe's debt crisis. Bullish market news would usually bolster oil prices as traders speculate that higher demand will follow.

A worsening of Europe's debt situation could send oil prices lower. But for now, said Samples, crude prices are going the way of the stock market, up.

"The market is assuming and trading on the assumption that these countries will be treated like they are too big to fail," said Samples. "We think this is a dangerous assumption."


http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/29/markets/oil/?postversion=2010042911

Too-big-to-fail countries - The Australian and the WSJ

The oil market's alignment with rising equities prices "smacks of renewed risk-acquisition behaviour...after or even despite the Greece-Portugal-Spain scare," said Brad Samples, analyst at Summit Energy.

"The market doesn't seem so bothered because distressed countries may be treated like distressed banks: 'Too big to fail.' This could prove a dangerous assumption to trade on, though. I think the probability of a major correction in risky assets continues to increase."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/oil-prices-jump-to-two-week-high/story-e6frg91o-1225860433617

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100429-719017.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

More on risk appetites - MarketWatch

"The general theme is related to the return of risk appetite," said Brad Samples, an analyst with Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. Oil "came back quite nicely" following a string of positive earnings results in the past couple of days, he added.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-rebound-after-two-sessions-of-losses-2010-04-20?dist=countdown

Risk appetites looming - WSJ

Analysts said the tone of other markets helped underpin oil. "We've had a string of positive earnings surprises, equities are up and government bonds are off--looks like risk appetites are large today," said Brad Samples, commodity analyst at Summit Energy Services in Louisville, Ky.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100420-713575.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

Quick views on EIA stocks - TD Waterhouse

"This move is all driven by the large drop in imports. It's hard to say how much you can read into it because the imports number is highly volatile and stochastic. It may be a one-off drop in imports."

"I think imports will be back on the rise because we know OPEC is overproducing. So I don't expect (crude) stocks being drawn like this often."

"U.S. refiners are in a similar position as OPEC. They are eager to produce more with the upcoming onset of driving season, but crack spreads are still not stellar and they won't be as long as refiners are producing a lot."

"The draw in gasoline is good, but the build in distillates is a concern. We don't need to be building distillate stocks right now. The problem is that as refiners produce more gasoline, they can't help also producing a significant amount of distillate in the process."

https://research.tdwaterhouse.ca/research/public/Markets/NewsArticle/1314-N14149467-1

Oversupply concerns rising - BusinessWeek

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined for a fifth day as the International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for non- OPEC supplies and U.S. inventories were estimated to climb, raising concern that the markets are oversupplied.

“We’re seeing a lot of growth out of the U.S., Russia and Canada, responding to high prices,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. “Investments that were made leading up to 2008 are coming to fruition.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-13/crude-oil-falls-for-fifth-day-on-concern-market-is-oversupplied.html

Rising tides lift risk assets - WSJ

"A rising tide should lift equities and crude together," said Brad Samples with Summit Energy. "The fact that crude is off in this environment is a bit odd and implicates oil-specific factors," namely the risks of rising inventories, he said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304024604575173173271590824.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=com-wsj

(Subscription required)

Discussing EIA on BNN TV

BNN is a great business news channel out of Canada that has had me on to talk about commodities many times. This post is a recent discussion on the EIA oil report.

http://watch.bnn.ca/market-morning/february-2010/market-morning-february-12-2010/#clip266284

Non-traditional drivers of crude... - CNN Money

"It looks like the European package [for Greece] may be falling apart," said Bradley Samples, a commodities analyst for Summit Energy. "Knowing that's not good for the euro, [investors] might sell crude."

"Crude is stalling out," said Samples. "Some traders have backed out [of the market] under the impression that nosebleed valuations are unsustainable."

While Greek debt worries continue to haunt the market, many analysts expect oil prices to rise based on stimulative policies from global central banks, recent policy decisions by OPEC and the Fed, and recent increases in oil demand.

Samples agrees, but expects trading based on the dollar to dissipate in coming months, as investors look more to inflationary pressures in China and other emerging economies.

"Inflation expectations will drive crude oil trading over the course of the year," he said.

http://money.cnn.com/2010/03/19/markets/oil/index.htm?section=money_markets&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+rss%2Fmoney_markets+(Markets

China + EIA = Lower oil - WSJ

"Market-risk assets in general are being affected by the news out of China, that it is tightening its monetary policy," said Brad Samples, analyst with Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky.

Equity markets were also down sharply as investors moved out of risky assets and headed into the safety of Treasurys and the dollar, which briefly hit a near nine-month high against the euro.

Ongoing worries about the economy are also still stemming from European debt problems, specifically the inability of European leaders to offer a firm commitment to plans for a Greek bail-out. The euro-zone also reported disappointing GDP figures, showing growth of just 0.1% in the fourth quarter, compared with 0.4% in the third quarter.

Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration on Friday reinforced oil's move lower, said Samples. Crude stocks rose 2.42 million barrels last week, more than the 1.3-million-barrel gain analysts surveyed by Dow Jones forecast. The data was delayed from Wednesday due to snow storm-related shutdowns of government offices in Washington D.C.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100212-711821.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

EIA reports a little changed market - Reuters

U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories
rose more than forecast last week while distillates fell much less than
expected, showed weekly government data on Friday which analysts said
reflected lingering weak demand for refined fuels in the world's largest
energy consumer.

"You couldn't ask for a more bearish report. It speaks to the
continuing lack of demand in the U.S. market," said Brad Samples of Summit
Energy in Louisville, Kentucky.

"Total (petroleum) product demand, at just below 19 million barrels a
day, is 2 million barrels a day below the five-year average level for this
season," said Samples of Summit Energy. "Demand has stabilized, just at
very low levels."

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKN1222589120100212

Europe's periphery gets a hand - Reuters

"News that major European economies have resolved to help
Greece and possibly other peripheral economies within the euro
zone is bullish for risk assets and also the euro. This
development is also supportive for commodities and equities,
and not for the dollar," said Brad Samples commodity analyst,
at Summit Energy Services Inc, in Louisville, Kentucky.

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1014763520100210

Mr Market knows - BusinessWeek

“Demand estimates are being revised upward,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. “The market anticipated that long, long ago. So now the market is moving more in line with reality and the forecasters are moving upward to meet reality.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-02-10/oil-fluctuates-as-opec-boosts-outlook-u-s-supplies-increase.html

Monster sell-off in risk assets - WSJ

The heavy losses in oil were accompanied by drops in equities and other commodity markets in a widespread exit of investors from risky assets on concerns about the economy.

"Today is an across the board movement away from risk and a flight to quality," said Brad Samples, analyst with Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky. The fall is "not just specific to oil."

The catalyst for the initial leg down was an unexpected rise in the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits last week. The Labor Department reported a rise in claims of 8,000 to 480,000 for the week ended Jan. 30.

"The initial jobs claims spooked the markets in anticipation of tomorrow (Friday's) jobs figure," said Samples.

The more widely anticipated U.S. non-farm payrolls for January will be released Friday morning. Investors will be closely watching for any changes in the jobless rate, with economists forecasting it at 10.1%.

Meanwhile, worries over the level of debt in European countries rallied the dollar to an eight-month high against the euro, contributing to a sharp decline in oil prices. Dollar-denominated oil tends to fall on a stronger greenback as it makes the commodity more expensive to other currency holders.

Fears mounted that Greece, Portugal and Spain may find it hard to bring their budgets under control--jeopardizing a fragile euro-zone economic recovery--and that this could potentially spread to other deficit-heavy economies.

Noting the longer-term run-up in the oil market since March 2009, Samples said oil prices have "over-anticipated economic recovery to some degree". He added "economic data is getting better but the pace of improvement is not very reassuring".

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100204-715505.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

PCE, Nigeria, and Crude - Bloomberg

“Consumer spending is really influential because it accounts for 70 percent of the economy,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. “The equity markets, commodities and the Fed are all looking for signs of sustained growth. Increased consumer spending provides some hope.”

Nigeria

Shell’s Nigerian unit said it halted some flow stations in the country’s southern oil region after sabotage caused a pipeline leak. The damage was detected Jan. 30, the same day the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, a militant group, said it was ending an “indefinite cease-fire.”

“Nigeria has been quiet for six months,” Samples said. “We were looking at Nigeria as a source of new supply that would mitigate increasing demand this year. That view could be out the window now.”

www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=aq10MkMkQRzU

Watch the distillate market! - WSJ

"The key market to watch is the distillate market that is levered to consumer spending," said Brad Samples, an analyst with Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky. "I don't think we really saw a great reason out of that (GDP) report today to expect that consumer spending is healthy."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100129-714852.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

Consumer spending isn't yet up to snuff - WSJ

"We've still not seen robust signals from the data that the private sector is ready to stand on its own two feet," said Brad Samples, an analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky. "Consumer spending is by and large what drives the U.S. economy, and that in turn is what drives consumption of oil."

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100129-713137.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

Oil is headed below $70 sooner or later - WSJ

With fuel consumption weak, "there is no reason for refiners to ramp up demand for crude," said Brad Samples, analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky., who said he expects prices to soon drop below $70 a barrel for the first time since mid-December

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100127-714070.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

Crude oversupply becomes product oversupply - Reuters

"We are moving from a situation of crude oil oversupply to one of product oversupply. Fuel demand is just not strong enough to work off these product stocks, even though refineries are running at relatively low rates," said Brad Samples, an analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, Kentucky.

http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/Oil-falls-towards-74-after-inventory-data-2010-01-27T183455Z-UPDATE-7-US

Discussing the impact of the President's banking proposal at ABC News

Brad Samples, a commodity analyst at Summit Energy Inc. said the market could see more volatility after President Barack Obama laid out plans to overhaul financial regulation. Obama is pushing for new rules that would restrict banks from using money gathered from deposits to trade stocks and bonds as well as limit the overall size of banks.

If big banks like JPMorgan Chase and Bank of America were forced to separate or reduce their market trading businesses, it would cut out a large portion of liquidity for commodities and derivatives markets, Samples said.

“When you threaten to cut out the biggest market makers, by definition it will increase volatility,” Samples said

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wirestory?id=9628532&page=1

Follow-through selling - Reuters

"Crude futures are down in follow-through selling after yesterday's EIA data showed very large builds in petroleum inventories. Data on retail sales have been disappointing also," said Brad Samples, analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, Kentucky.

http://www.forexpros.com/news/general-news/update-7-oil-near-unchanged,-weak-economic-data-weighs-113009

Option expiry and retail sales - Reuters

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1410838320100114?type=marketsNews

"Data on retail sales have been disappointing also. Trading
is volatile in part due to trading on options for February
crude, which expires today," Samples added.

Previewing the CFTC proposal on position limits - Reuters

http://www.forexyard.com/en/news/PREVIEW-CFTCs-trading-proposals-might-not-be-too-tough-2010-01-13T202315Z

Brad Samples, an analyst at Summit Energy in Louisville, said he believes the CFTC's new limits will be more stringent than those now set by the New York Mercantile Exchange for the oil market.
But Samples doesn't expect the CFTC to be too vigorous enforcing any new regulations, saying, "the CFTC will look the other way except for the most egregious instances of violation."

More on China's oil implications - Bloomberg

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aADt.PjPt4DM

"The Chinese authorities are taking steps right now to restrict the amount of excess liquidity in their economy,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. “This would not necessarily have a bearish impact on the market but a mitigating impact on some of the bull influences in the market.”

Commenting on Chinese oil demand in the WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100107-711683.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

Appearance on CNBC Fast Money to discuss my oil outlook and trade ideas

Oil Snaps 10-Session Gain On Economic Concerns - WSJ

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100107-711683.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

"Chinese demand has offered key support for oil in 2009 and OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) demand is not there to fill the void," said Brad Samples, analyst with Summit Energy, in Louisville, Ky.
But he noted that it's not clear whether this monetary move could be bad for the Chinese economy or whether China may start to take away fiscal support because it believes the economy can stand on its own.

The Labor Department had reported Thursday that the number of U.S. workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by 1,000 last week to 432,000. The gain was less than expected, supporting some expectations that the job market is bottoming out.

"The market will look to see if unemployment is petering out at this level and what this will do for consumer spending and can it support (oil) consumption," said Samples.