Thursday, April 29, 2010

More on TBTF countries - CNN Money

What analysts are saying: "Today, it's pretty much a classic risk trade," said Brad Samples, a commodities analyst for Summit Energy. "Risk appetite is rising and people are returning to the market."

For weeks, crude prices have struggled to find a definitive direction as traders balanced optimistic economic and earnings news with developments in Europe's debt crisis. Bullish market news would usually bolster oil prices as traders speculate that higher demand will follow.

A worsening of Europe's debt situation could send oil prices lower. But for now, said Samples, crude prices are going the way of the stock market, up.

"The market is assuming and trading on the assumption that these countries will be treated like they are too big to fail," said Samples. "We think this is a dangerous assumption."


http://money.cnn.com/2010/04/29/markets/oil/?postversion=2010042911

Too-big-to-fail countries - The Australian and the WSJ

The oil market's alignment with rising equities prices "smacks of renewed risk-acquisition behaviour...after or even despite the Greece-Portugal-Spain scare," said Brad Samples, analyst at Summit Energy.

"The market doesn't seem so bothered because distressed countries may be treated like distressed banks: 'Too big to fail.' This could prove a dangerous assumption to trade on, though. I think the probability of a major correction in risky assets continues to increase."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/oil-prices-jump-to-two-week-high/story-e6frg91o-1225860433617

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100429-719017.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

More on risk appetites - MarketWatch

"The general theme is related to the return of risk appetite," said Brad Samples, an analyst with Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. Oil "came back quite nicely" following a string of positive earnings results in the past couple of days, he added.


http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-rebound-after-two-sessions-of-losses-2010-04-20?dist=countdown

Risk appetites looming - WSJ

Analysts said the tone of other markets helped underpin oil. "We've had a string of positive earnings surprises, equities are up and government bonds are off--looks like risk appetites are large today," said Brad Samples, commodity analyst at Summit Energy Services in Louisville, Ky.

http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20100420-713575.html?mod=WSJ_World_MIDDLEHeadlinesEurope

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Quick views on EIA stocks - TD Waterhouse

"This move is all driven by the large drop in imports. It's hard to say how much you can read into it because the imports number is highly volatile and stochastic. It may be a one-off drop in imports."

"I think imports will be back on the rise because we know OPEC is overproducing. So I don't expect (crude) stocks being drawn like this often."

"U.S. refiners are in a similar position as OPEC. They are eager to produce more with the upcoming onset of driving season, but crack spreads are still not stellar and they won't be as long as refiners are producing a lot."

"The draw in gasoline is good, but the build in distillates is a concern. We don't need to be building distillate stocks right now. The problem is that as refiners produce more gasoline, they can't help also producing a significant amount of distillate in the process."

https://research.tdwaterhouse.ca/research/public/Markets/NewsArticle/1314-N14149467-1

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Oversupply concerns rising - BusinessWeek

April 13 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined for a fifth day as the International Energy Agency boosted its forecast for non- OPEC supplies and U.S. inventories were estimated to climb, raising concern that the markets are oversupplied.

“We’re seeing a lot of growth out of the U.S., Russia and Canada, responding to high prices,” said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. “Investments that were made leading up to 2008 are coming to fruition.”

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-04-13/crude-oil-falls-for-fifth-day-on-concern-market-is-oversupplied.html

Friday, April 9, 2010

Rising tides lift risk assets - WSJ

"A rising tide should lift equities and crude together," said Brad Samples with Summit Energy. "The fact that crude is off in this environment is a bit odd and implicates oil-specific factors," namely the risks of rising inventories, he said.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304024604575173173271590824.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&mg=com-wsj

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