Friday, May 21, 2010

Premature flight to risk - MarketWatch

"It's the flight from risk again," said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst with Summit Energy in Louisville, Ky. "People are piling on Treasurys and out of anything that hints of risk." (risk assets ended higher, except oil)

Friday, May 7, 2010

Crude selloff continues - MarketWatch

Crude oil for June delivery, the most active contract, lost 72 cents, or 0.6%, to $76.62 a barrel on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's its lowest price since mid-February, when prices dropped to a little above $74 a barrel.

"Everything is still very much in a fragile state. Who wants to jump in just yet?" said Brad Samples, a commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Ky. Investors pondered whether it would be wiser just to let "the uncertainly shake itself off," he said.

Thursday, May 6, 2010

Assessing the Deepwater Horizon backlash - Reuters

Are costs going to rise? Absolutely. Will it hurt oil producers? No, because they are going to pass the costs on to consumers," said Brad Samples of Summit Energy in Louisville, Kentucky...

...But the futures curve for oil prices indicates that some traders may already be factoring in new costs that could make crude more costly down the line.

"Longer-dated oil prices should rise because of this event (spill), since they would reflect the higher cost of getting those barrels out of the ground," Samples said...

..."To the extent that marginal costs rise here, you'll get higher production costs everywhere, in Brazil and Angola and wherever the deepwater play is happening," Samples said.

Thursday, April 29, 2010

More on TBTF countries - CNN Money

What analysts are saying: "Today, it's pretty much a classic risk trade," said Brad Samples, a commodities analyst for Summit Energy. "Risk appetite is rising and people are returning to the market."

For weeks, crude prices have struggled to find a definitive direction as traders balanced optimistic economic and earnings news with developments in Europe's debt crisis. Bullish market news would usually bolster oil prices as traders speculate that higher demand will follow.

A worsening of Europe's debt situation could send oil prices lower. But for now, said Samples, crude prices are going the way of the stock market, up.

"The market is assuming and trading on the assumption that these countries will be treated like they are too big to fail," said Samples. "We think this is a dangerous assumption."

Too-big-to-fail countries - The Australian and the WSJ

The oil market's alignment with rising equities prices "smacks of renewed risk-acquisition behaviour...after or even despite the Greece-Portugal-Spain scare," said Brad Samples, analyst at Summit Energy.

"The market doesn't seem so bothered because distressed countries may be treated like distressed banks: 'Too big to fail.' This could prove a dangerous assumption to trade on, though. I think the probability of a major correction in risky assets continues to increase."

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

More on risk appetites - MarketWatch

"The general theme is related to the return of risk appetite," said Brad Samples, an analyst with Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky. Oil "came back quite nicely" following a string of positive earnings results in the past couple of days, he added.

Risk appetites looming - WSJ

Analysts said the tone of other markets helped underpin oil. "We've had a string of positive earnings surprises, equities are up and government bonds are off--looks like risk appetites are large today," said Brad Samples, commodity analyst at Summit Energy Services in Louisville, Ky.